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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.56 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP