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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to WAS 33, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model