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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 67

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to MIN 21, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.39 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP