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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 25-A.Szmyt 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.21 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model