Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 17 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 52-J.Williams, Center-50-R.Sunahara, RECOVERED by TEN-44-M.Brown at CLE 36. 44-M.Brown to CLE 29 for 7 yards (33-R.Hickman).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model