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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 21 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 3-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.71 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model