Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 17 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to TEN 43, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 17-C.Dike to TEN 41 for -2 yards (50-R.Sunahara). PENALTY on TEN-88-D.Martin-Robinson, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.78 EP
73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model