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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 14 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 3-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.61 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -3.11 EP
KICK -1.89 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model