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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 17 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to TEN 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.12 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model