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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 14 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 3-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model