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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 17 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 27 yards to TEN 25, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.21 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model