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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 37 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to ATL 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.06 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP