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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SEA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.47 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model