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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

What Actually Happened

(:12) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.26 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model