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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to LAC 25, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.78 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model