4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to PHI 5, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-B.Covey to PHI 27 for 22 yards (58-M.Wax).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.75 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP