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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.51 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model