4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to NO 17 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux; 56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.68 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 19, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model