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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 12

New Orleans Saints 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 39-C.Smyth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.51 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP