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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(:57) 24-D.Neal left guard to TB 44 for -2 yards (5-H.Reddick). TB-5-H.Reddick was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.90 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model