Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 32-K.Kroeger punts 53 yards to TB 29, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-K.Johnson MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 28. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at TB 28 for no gain (43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.95 EP
74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model