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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 56

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to MIA 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.70 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP