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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 35

Miami Dolphins 31 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 47-R.Patterson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.12 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model