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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 45

New York Jets 10 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(4:35) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook sacked at NYJ 42 for -13 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model