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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 12

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model