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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 56

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model