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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 52

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to MIA 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.10 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model