4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 25

Miami Dolphins 21 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model