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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 21 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.55 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -3.18 EP
KICK -1.98 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model