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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 21 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:42) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to NYJ 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.17 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP