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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 14-M.Araiza punts 57 yards to HOU 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 33 for 21 yards (59-C.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model