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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 10

Houston Texans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +2.86 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model