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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 65

Houston Texans 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to KC 22, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 1-X.Worthy.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.81 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP