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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.90 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP