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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 88

Houston Texans 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to HOU 48, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.67 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 88, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model