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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 2

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.49 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model