Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 87

Houston Texans 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(14:08) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to KC 44, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 1-X.Worthy.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.02 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 87, worth -5.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model