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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 25

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model