4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 42

Houston Texans 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to KC 3, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-19-X.Hutchinson.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.46 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP