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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to HOU 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.83 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model