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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 5

Denver Broncos 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 5, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP