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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(2:42) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 18-J.Bech to DEN 22 for 17 yards (9-T.Hufanga).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.59 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model