Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 14

(13:31) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-59-J.Rhattigan.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model