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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 43

Denver Broncos 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to LV 39 for 4 yards (45-D.White) [51-M.Koonce]. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to LV 41 for 2 yards (45-D.White) [51-M.Koonce].

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.40 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model