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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 40

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 35 yards to LV 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP