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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 99

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to DET 37, Center-44-T.Sieg. 85-T.Kennedy to DAL 42 for 21 yards (43-M.Davis; 35-M.Liufau).

The Three Options

GO -4.04 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.06 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 99, worth -6.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 53, worth -3.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model