Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 30 – Detroit Lions 44

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 40 for 9 yards (2-D.Thomas). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 41 for 10 yards (2-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.40 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -2.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model