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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 28

Detroit Lions 27 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 39-J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model