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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 19 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 16 – Detroit Lions 27

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 17-B.Aubrey 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP