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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Detroit Lions 27

What Actually Happened

(11:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to DET 2 for 7 yards (29-A.Maddox; 23-R.Ya-Sin). FUMBLES (29-A.Maddox), recovered by DAL-73-T.Smith at DET 2.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model